The ‘hand grenade’ in Gavin Newsom’s lap

Por Jeremy B. White and Melanie Mason — POLITICO – TOP Stories

Gavin Newsom fought hard to keep a California billionaire tax off the ballot. Now, he’s keeping his distance.

Months ago, Newsom personally lobbied the initiative’s backers to withdraw the one-time levy, warning the proposal had already begun driving ultrawealthy residents and their businesses out of state. He remains one of its most prominent foes and has been kept apprised of the opposition campaign. But he is not fundraising or taking a lead role in messaging against a measure that could become an early test of his political standing and economic vision ahead of a likely presidential bid.

The calculation reflects the bind that Proposition 40 poses for Newsom. If it passes despite his early warnings, he risks looking disconnected from populist fury over inequality and President Donald Trump’s health care cuts. If it fails, Newsom and his allies would be vindicated — but Democratic rivals on the left could still point to the defeat as a sign that he is overly attuned to anti-tax tech billionaires.

Now, as he enters his final campaign cycle as governor, Newsom must decide how much political capital to spend against an initiative that has cleaved California’s Democratic coalition.

“It feels like a sticky wicket for him,” said Jim Kessler, president of Third Way, a centrist Democratic think tank. “Newsom’s a smart guy. He may have this figured all out. [But] a little hand grenade was tossed in his lap with this.”

Newsom has long argued the wealth tax — a proposal to offset federal health care cuts by imposing a one-time, 5% levy on the assets of California’s wealthiest residents — is the wrong solution to a real problem.

He established himself early on as its most prominent political opponent, echoing Silicon Valley rancor in assailing the proposal as an ill-conceived threat to California’s economic competitiveness that would drive vital taxpayers out of state. He worked behind the scenes to derail it, encouraging groups like the California Teachers Association and Planned Parenthood to come out against the measure, while issuing a broader call to “democratize the economy” by raising taxes in other ways.

“The strategic implications of Gavin Newsom being vocally opposed to the wealth tax couldn’t be bigger,” said Chris Lehman, a longtime ballot initiative consultant who is not working on the wealth tax. “Everyone is dealing with the calamitous effects of wealth inequality, and this looks like a great answer, so if Gavin Newsom is saying to people, ‘It looks like a good idea but it’s not, and here’s why,’ that is strategically massively important.”

But the politics have only become more fraught in the weeks since the proposal made the ballot. Proponents picked up key endorsements from the California Labor Federation and the California Democratic Party, undercutting efforts by Newsom and Democratic allies to present a united front.

“The issue’s not great for him politically,” said a Democratic consultant working against the wealth tax, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “There is a disadvantage for him with many segments of the electorate.”

The California ballot initiative has quickly become a proxy for a broader Democratic fight over how aggressively to tax the ultrawealthy — a debate likely to shape the 2028 primary. Soon after the measure qualified, Newsom countered with a menu of national tax increases that could form the core of a presidential platform — an acknowledgement that Democratic voters expect their leaders to tackle widening economic inequality, even as he rejects Prop 40’s approach.

“There’s not going to be a single Democrat running for president in 2028 that will not have a plan to dramatically increase taxes on the most wealthy. That will be unanimous,” Kessler said. “How they do it will differ.”

Wealth tax proponents like Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Ro Khanna, a California progressive who is also eyeing a White House bid, have portrayed the measure as a litmus test for voters eager to see their leaders take on entrenched economic powers. Newsom’s opposition could make him an easy target for the left.

“His critics, which would certainly include opponents in the presidential race, will make the charge that he turned his back on the voters suffering from income inequality and the lack of affordable health care,” said Darry Sragow, a longtime Democratic consultant in California. “For his opponents, that’s just lobbing it across the net. That’s an easy one.”

That line of attack has already begun as the wealth tax campaign plays out in the shadow of the 2028 contest. Khanna has invoked Newsom’s presidential ambitions and portrayed him as part of a corrupt establishment dependent on oligarchs’ campaign cash.

“They’re going to put the governor’s face on it, and they’re going to put elected officials’ face on it, and they’re going to fearmonger,” Khanna said at a recent campaign event.

Newsom has not been directly involved in making strategic decisions for the No side, though he has several key aides either embedded in the campaign or in regular communication with it.

“We do not suffer from lack of information about what is going on,” said a Newsom adviser granted anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

As the anti-Prop. 40 effort took shape, there was anxiety among some in the governor’s orbit for not being sufficiently read in on the campaign’s plans. But two people involved in the effort said those concerns have largely subsided as communication improved and the campaign’s ads began to hit the airwaves.

Newsom himself may not be the most effective messenger against the tax, unlike when he led a highly partisan gerrymandering campaign last year. The first ad featured the governor but did not make him the main character. Instead, he shared the billing with a cast of opponents that included Republican governor nominee Steve Hilton, his Democratic opponent Xavier Becerra, and union foes, like teachers and firefighters, that have broad cross-party appeal.

“Our task as a campaign is to let voters know, especially Democratic voters, who’s lined up against this measure,” said Anthony York, a spokesperson for the opposition. “When they learn not only Governor Newsom but Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton are against it, it changes the perception of what this measure does.”

Most polls have given the wealth tax at best a fragile lead, even before a deluge of opposition ads begins. The opposition effort doesn’t need Newsom to raise money, as a group of billionaires led by Google co-founder Sergey Brin is pouring tens of millions of dollars into fighting the tax.

Fonte: POLITICO – TOP Stories