Quebec elects separatist premier, handing Carney a new test

Por Zi-Ann Lum — POLITICO – TOP Stories

As much of Canada unites against U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war, Quebec has elected a separatist premier who has promised a referendum on independence — even though most Quebecers don’t want one.

Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon won a five-party race on Monday night, earning a minority government. The governing Coalition Avenir Québec, which won back-to-back majorities after taking power in 2018, was wiped out.

“I have Quebec tattooed on my heart,” CAQ Leader Christine Fréchette said in her concession speech in Trois-Rivières, calling it the honor of her life to serve as the second woman to ever lead the province. “I gave everything I could.”

Ahead of the results, Prime Minister Mark Carney pledged to work with the winner “C’est le choix des Québécois et Québécoises,” he said on Parliament Hill — it’s for Quebecers to decide.

Voters in the province wanted change, though they did not give St-Pierre Plamondon the 64 seats needed to secure a majority government, awarding him instead a minority mandate — the fourth in the province’s history.

Carney is Quebec’s most popular politician, with the Angus Reid Institute measuring his personal appeal at 61%. The province’s industries are among the most exposed to Trump’s tariffs. The combination may give the new separatist premier a reason to play nice with the federal Liberals — at least for the short term.

But St-Pierre Plamondon’s arrival could also complicate Carney’s attempts to keep Canada’s premiers united against Trump’s tariff agenda.

The U.S. president was front and center during the 39-day Quebec campaign.

“It’s the only province in the country in which more people say that Donald Trump and the United States is the top issue facing the country,” pollster David Coletto said in Toronto on Monday.

Quebec’s steel, aluminum, autos industries and forestry sectors are highly exposed to steep duties, which have led to plant closures and job losses.

A recent National Bank analysis estimates Quebec faces average tariff rates of roughly 11%, the highest in Canada. Quebec’s steel and aluminum exports dropped by nearly 25% in 2025, according to provincial data, with more double-digit declines in autos, chemicals and plastics products.

With a minority mandate, St-Pierre Plamondon will have to cut deals with opposition parties to pass legislation in the Quebec legislature, hampering hopes of quick progress on ambitious promises, like dismantling Santé Québec, a Crown corporation stood up by the CAQ to administer the province’s health and social services.

St-Pierre Plamondon has also promised to deliver Quebec its third referendum on independence, though not until after Trump leaves office.

Fréchette launched the election campaign in late August, little more than four months in the top job after predecessor François Legault resigned in April.

Legault led the CAQ to two majorities, starting in 2018 when his upstart party disrupted decades of political history in the province written in alternating chapters of Liberal and PQ governments.

The CAQ accumulated baggage during its tenure. Mismanagement of health care system reform and bungled government investments pushed the party’s popularity to historic lows in Legault’s last months in office.

By the time Legault handed the reins to Fréchette, she faced insurmountable voter fatigue against a fixed October election date.

St-Pierre Plamondon’s victory ends Quebec’s CAQ experiment.

The prospect of a referendum in Quebec will depend on St-Pierre Plamondon’s ability to build a strong case for sovereignty to avoid a third losing vote on the cause.

While the newly elected PQ government settles into governing, a nonbinding referendum in Alberta this month has given mainstream attention to that province’s separatist movement. The two separatist movements in Quebec and Alberta are dissimilar, but share a common thread in their supporters’ belief that they’ve been historically disrespected by Ottawa.

Federally, Carney has tried to temper nationalist sentiments in Quebec by announcing a massive energy deal to expand the Churchill Falls hydroelectric station. He has also worked to deepen bilateral relations with France, which Quebecers consider Canada’s most important ally, according to the most recent POLITICO Poll.

When trade negotiations collapsed between the Carney government and Trump administration in August, the prime minister partly blamed U.S. officials angling for provisions that would diminish Quebecois culture and identity — a third rail in Quebec politics.

White House officials and the president denied the claim.

“I would never interfere with Canadians speaking French! In fact, I have never even thought of doing such a stupid thing,” Trump posted on Truth Social a week after Canada-U.S. trade negotiations collapsed. “I love French Canadians!”

Carney’s high popularity has made Trump an irresistible political foil in Canadian politics. Fréchette is only the latest incumbent who has tried to play the trade war in a bid for reelection.

Earlier this month, British Columbia Premier David Eby triggered a snap election in a bid to add more seats to his slim majority government. “He wants to weaken us. He wants to divide us,” Eby told reporters about Trump. “He wants to drive up our costs and put our businesses and our workers at risk. He wants to make British Columbia and Canada, America light.”

St-Pierre Plamondon’s biggest challenge will be to deliver on his promises to stave off the risk of having his minority government fall, triggering another election.

Fonte: POLITICO – TOP Stories