Poll: California Democrats see Newsom as stronger 2028 contender than Harris

Por Melanie Mason — POLITICO – TOP Stories

California voters are souring on the idea of Gavin Newsom or Kamala Harris running for president in 2028. But among the state’s Democrats, the California governor has the clear advantage over the former vice president, according to a new poll by POLITICO and its partners.

Both Harris and Newsom have lost some altitude since earlier this year with California voters overall, according to the UC Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research-POLITICO poll. The share of California registered voters excited about a Newsom presidential run fell 11 points, from 48% in March to 37% in September. For Harris, excitement fell 13 points, from 41% to 28%.

But a strong majority of Democrats and Democratic-leaning registered voters — 61% — said they would be excited for a Newsom presidential bid, according to the survey, while 39% would not be. Democrats were less keen on Harris, with a 55% majority saying they would not be excited for her to run.

The findings are a significant measure of the two politicians’ standing with Democrats in a state whose voters are more familiar with them than anywhere else. And the gulf between the two is more even pronounced when respondents were asked which politician would be more likely to succeed in a 2028 campaign. Just 10% of Democrats said they believed Harris would have a higher chance of winning the Democratic nomination for president, while 49% said Newsom had better odds. Democrats also believed Newsom would have better prospects in a general election, with 59% saying he would be more likely to win, compared to 9% for Harris.

“There’s no question that Democrats see Newsom as the stronger general election prospect, even if neither he nor Harris is generating much excitement, and that shines through,” said Jon Cohen, founder and CEO of TrueDot, whose firm fielded the poll.

The findings come as the fates of the two friends and, at times, rivals are more intertwined than ever. Both have acknowledged they are considering running in 2028, but Newsom recently told CNN he would not run if Harris decides to take another shot at the presidency.

Speaking to Jake Tapper, Newsom framed his stance in tactical terms, stating that two California candidates would cannibalize each other’s support, ultimately to the benefit of non-Californians in the race.

Among California independents and Republicans, Newsom and Harris generate similarly low enthusiasm in the poll, with roughly 85% of voters with no party affiliation and around 93% of GOP voters saying they would not be excited for either politician to run.

Harris also did not inspire much zeal in a concurrent survey of POLITICO’s audience of key political and policy influencers in the state, including political staffers, lobbyists, policy advisers and others deeply versed in California’s political landscape. Just 15% of these influencers said they would be excited if she ran, compared to 41% for Newsom.

The low marks for Harris fits a longstanding pattern since her loss in the 2024 presidential race, said Jack Citrin, a UC Berkeley political scientist and co-director of the poll.

“This has been stable through all of the polling that we’ve done from the very, very beginning. There’s no, really, enthusiasm for Harris running at all,” Citrin said. “She lags well behind Newsom in terms of both interest in them running and in expectations of how well they would do.”

The perception that Newsom would have a better chance at winning would likely influence voters, said Robert Van Houweling, a political science professor at UC Berkeley.

“They would certainly weigh electability to some degree,” he said. “There is enthusiasm in some sense or excitedness for both of them, but I would think concerns about electability would certainly tilt the choice even further towards Newsom, given the data we have here.”

Newsom’s job approval ratings have slightly declined, with 42% of registered voters giving him favorable reviews and 55% disapproving, compared to 46%-51% in the previous poll. Most of the drop-off came from worsening views from independents and Republicans, while approval among Democrats remained relatively steady, with roughly three-quarters giving him viewing him favorably.

“People are pretty dour on the state,” Cohen said. “That’s not reflected in taking out Democrats at the ballot, at least not at the top of the ticket. But I think his approval rating is reflective of other assessments about the direction of the state.”

These data come from parallel surveys of California voters and policy influencers, fielded by TrueDot, the AI-accelerated research platform, in collaboration with the Citrin Center at UC Berkeley and POLITICO. Interviews for the voter survey were conducted online in English and Spanish from Sept. 8-14, among a sample of 2,418 registered voters, including 1,983 likely voters, selected at random through Political Data Inc. and Verasight, with supplemental online panel recruitment. Voter results were weighted to California registered-voter benchmarks for age, educational attainment, race and ethnicity, gender, and geography, with additional calibration to 2024 presidential vote by region.

From Sept. 11-16, a parallel study was conducted in partnership with POLITICO among its audience of key political and policy influencers in California. The audience was defined based on job title and organizational affiliation and included state and local government employees, political staffers, lobbyists, policy advisers, consultants, business decision-makers and subject matter experts.

The margin of error is plus or minus 2.7% for the registered voter survey, plus or minus 3% for likely voters and plus or minus 4.5% for the influencers.

Fonte: POLITICO – TOP Stories