House Republicans on track to lose majority
Por Kate Santaliz — Axios
House Republicans are on track to lose their majority just a little over one month out from the midterm elections, according to a nonpartisan election forecaster.
Why it matters: Cook Political Report shifted 15 House races toward Democrats on Friday, the latest sign that the political environment is deteriorating for Republicans.
- Democrats only nee a net gain of three seats to take the majority.
- Cook now projects Democrats are most likely to gain between five and 15 seats, which would give them a 220-230 seat majority next year.
The big picture: Republicans have spent much of the cycle arguing that redistricting and a sizable financial advantage would give them more breathing room.
- But new Democratic maps in California and Utah are largely offsetting Republicans’ redistricting gains elsewhere, according to Cook.
- Republicans still hold a financial edge over Democrats. The National Republican Congressional Committee entered the final stretch with $13 million more in cash on hand than the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee — a record advantage for this point in the cycle.
State of play: Democrats are favored in 208 races, compared with 205 for Republicans after Friday’s ratings changes.
- There are now 17 Republican-held seats rated as Toss Ups, compared with just five Democratic-held seats.
- Republicans would need to win a majority of the Toss Up races to keep control of the House, according to Cook.
Zoom out: Some of the most competitive House races are overwhelmingly in districts President Trump won in 2024.
- Trump is underwater in many of those districts, driven in large part by dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy, according to Cook.
- The median Toss Up district voted for Trump by 7 percentage points in 2024.
Fonte: Axios
