U.S. midterms — Donald Trump’s test, India’s stakes
The Hindu – International
You are logged in
Loading…
You don’t have any Active Subscription.
Subscribed with another email? Logout and Login with that one.
Your active subscription(s)
Account subscription benefits alongside Premium Stories, Editorials,
Opinions and more. Unlock these with Subscription
Products you’ve access to
Additional Subscription Benefits
Account Settings
Need help with your subscription?
Weather News October 16, 2026 e-Paper
The View From India
Looking at World Affairs from the Indian perspective.
First Day First Show
News and reviews from the world of cinema and streaming.
Today's Cache
Your download of the top 5 technology stories of the day.
Science For All
The weekly newsletter from science writers takes the jargon out of science and puts the fun in!
Data Point
Decoding the headlines with facts, figures, and numbers
THEdge
At the cutting edge of education and careers
Health Matters
Ramya Kannan writes to you on getting to good health, and staying there
Gender Agenda
Stories from beyond the binary.
The Hindu On Books
Books of the week, reviews, excerpts, new titles and features.
Weather News October 16, 2026 e-Paper
Published – October 17, 2026 12:08 am IST
‘President Donald Trump has made this election about himself’
| Photo Credit: Getty Images via AFP
With less than three weeks to go before Americans vote in the midterm elections on November 3, 2026; the polls are so called because they fall midway through a President’s four-year term. The President is not on the ballot. Unlike India’s Election Commission, the United States’ federal Election Assistance Commission does not run elections, and voter registration, voting and counting are managed primarily by state and local authorities under a decentralised system. Each State has its own rules, and thousands of counties and towns print ballots, establish polling centres and count votes. Many Americans vote early, by post or in person, and counting can take days.
Voters will choose the Congress that shapes the President’s last two years. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are due for election, since members serve two-year terms. In the Senate, where members serve six years, 35 of the 100 seats are up for election, including special elections in Ohio and Florida. Republicans hold a narrow majority in the House, where 218 seats are needed for control, and 53 seats in the Senate, so the Democrats need a net gain of four. Voters in States, including California, Texas and Florida, will also elect 39 Governors. Those elected now will be in office for the 2028 presidential election, and many will sign off on its results.
The forecasts favour the Democrats in the House, where the Cook Political Report expects them to gain between five and 15 seats. The Senate is closer, with Democrats narrowly ahead in Texas, Iowa and Michigan.
Frustrated with Trump, voters overwhelmingly want change in Washington, an AP-NORC poll finds
Musk has spent $276 million on midterms to help Republicans retain control of Congress
Trump attacks immigrants from Somalia and Haiti while rallying in Ohio for Republican candidates
Trump interrupted by protesters as he fights to rally Texas voters behind Paxton in U.S. Senate race
Indian readers would closely follow the race for Ohio Governor. Vivek Ramaswamy, who sought the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, would be the State’s first Indian-American Governor. He now trails the Democrat, Amy Acton, a former State Health director, by six points in one recent poll and nine in another. A poor national mood for Republicans explains much of this.
His campaign has also faced open hostility towards his Indian heritage and Hindu faith, from a primary rival and online — part of a wider rise in anti-Indian rhetoric on the American right since the H-1B debate.
Midterms usually serve as a verdict on the President, and the President’s party usually loses seats. In this case, President Donald Trump has made this election about himself, even if many Republican candidates would have preferred otherwise. In September, the Republicans held their first-ever midterm convention, in Dallas, built around Mr. Trump. He is now on a rally tour of at least 17 States, telling supporters to “pretend I’m on the ballot”. His approval stands at about 30%, and registered voters prefer the Democrats for Congress by around eight points.
Five issues dominate. The first is the cost of living, as groceries, housing and fuel grow dearer and tariffs push prices up. The second is the war with Iran, launched with Israel in late February 2026, which is unpopular and has made fuel costlier. The third is immigration, where large deportation raids have cost the Republicans their old advantage. The fourth is health care, where cuts to Medicaid, the public insurance programme for low-income Americans, are among the administration’s least popular measures. The fifth, crime in America’s cities, is the Republicans’ strongest card, and the issue on which Mr. Trump polls best.
The campaign is also shadowed by fears about the vote itself. Mr. Trump has pushed for proof of citizenship to register, pressed Republican States to redraw their congressional maps in mid-decade, and called on Republicans to “take over” voting in some places.
He has not ruled out sending immigration agents or the National Guard to polling stations. Federal law bars armed agents from polling places, and officials say immigration agents will not patrol them, but the threat alone may keep some voters at home. Asked whether he would accept a defeat, Mr. Trump said he would, if the elections are honest.
For India, the election comes at a difficult moment. U.S. tariffs on Indian goods rose to 50% in 2025 before a February framework cut them to 18%, and the interim deal is still unsigned. On September 18, Mr. Trump signed a law allowing tariffs of up to 100% on the largest buyers of Russian energy, including India, with 58 House Democrats voting for it. The $1,00,000 fee on new H-1B visas and Washington’s warmth towards Pakistan add to the strain.
A recent study by the Takshashila Institution, based on 42 interviews in Washington, found that support for India in Congress is wide but shallow. Groups opposed to cheap imports, skilled migration, and Russian oil money are smaller, but they care more, and they vote. India had friends rather than costs: many members liked India but no member paid a price for harming it.
A Democratic House could ease the treatment of Indian students and workers and press to end a war that has raised India’s oil bill. It is unlikely to change the tariffs or the Russia law. A President weakened at home may also look abroad for wins — either a trade deal with India or fresh pressure on it. New Delhi should expect the relationship to be decided in the White House, whoever controls Congress.
Anil Raman is a retired Brigadier and a research fellow in the Geopolitics Program of Takshashila Institution
Published – October 17, 2026 12:08 am IST
USA
/
election
/
India
/
Election Commission of India
/
voting
/
politics
/
state politics
/
Governor
/
political parties
/
political campaigns
/
insurance
/
health
/
Israel-US strikes on Iran
/
immigration
/
taxes and duties
/
Russia
/
oil and gas – upstream activities
/
Pakistan
/
imports
Copyright© 2026, THG PUBLISHING PVT LTD. or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved.
BACK TO TOP
Terms & conditions | Institutional Subscriber
Comments have to be in English, and in full sentences. They cannot be abusive or personal. Please abide by our community guidelines for posting your comments.
We have migrated to a new commenting platform. If you are already a registered user of The Hindu and logged in, you may continue to engage with our articles. If you do not have an account please register and login to post comments. Users can access their older comments by logging into their accounts on Vuukle.
Fonte: The Hindu – International
