Trump’s Texas-sized problem is about more than TV ratings
Por John Bowden — – World RSS Feed
Trump’s Texas-sized problem is about more than TV ratings
Trump’s midterm convention in Dallas was a ‘drag’ on Ken Paxton’s numbers, the Texas candidate admits, but Trump remains fixated on TV ratings, writes John Bowden
Thursday 01 October 2026 22:00 BST
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D onald Trump has a Texas-sized problem, and it goes beyond just a football game.
With Republicans now firmly in acceptance of their dire midterm prospects, the president is in spin mode. Eager to disavow any responsibility for an impending midterm defeat for his party linked to an unpopular war with Iran and poor economic conditions at home, Trump is blaming Republicans in Congress for the party’s unpopularity as he seeks to escape blame.
Enter Ken Paxton, Republican candidate for Senate in Texas.
Facing the prospect of being the first Republican to lose a statewide election in Texas in more than 30 years, the embattled Paxton is stuck trying to appeal to Trump’s hardcore base of supporters and drive up turnout among the president’s loyalists as he remains a figure of controversy withing the Texas GOP establishment and does not have the backing of his former opponent, incumbent Sen. John Cornyn. But with Trump’s approval rating at 42 percent in the state of Texas, Paxton’s appeal as an avowed loyal vote for Trump in the Senate has yet to push him past James Talarico, the Democratic nominee who is putting up stiff competition for the Senate seat.
Paxton was with Trump on Thursday as they visited a manufacturing plant Denton, Texas, and tried to project unity. In leaked audio from a GOP fundraiser obtained by The New York Times, however, Paxton was heard admitting to supporters that Trump’s midterm convention in Dallas this month had a net negative effect on his Senate campaign.
“So to be honest with you, the numbers — when we did that convention — it dropped our numbers,” Paxton said, according to the Times. “Everybody’s numbers dropped. Right now, yeah, not good.”
open image in galleryTrump addressed those remarks in a pair of statements to reporters this week, brushing them off. To the president, the main problem with his convention wasn’t the message, it was the timing: Occurring during the season opener of the New England Patriots and other games, the GOP’s midterm convention ended up competing with the NFL for both nights of its two-day bash in Dallas.
“That convention was a tremendous success. it went up against the NFL,” said Trump on Thursday as he departed for Texas. “They had 24 million views. We had 107 million views. In other words, we beat the NFL by four times. We were there for a lot of reasons. First of all, I won Texas all three times. I won the Hispanic vote all three times. Texas has been great to me.”
open image in galleryThose figures are incorrect; the GOP midterm convention did not have 107 million views. That figure, according to media analytics firms, combines all social media impressions on all sites — including content on sites like TikTok, X and YouTube that may come across a user’s feed through the site’s suggested content features, but is not actually ever necessarily viewed.
That’s not Trump’s only problem. Paxton’s complaint isn’t insufficient viewership, it’s too much. Hooked closer to Trump’s coattails than perhaps any Senate candidate this cycle, Paxton’s remark came in response to a question specificaly about whether the president himself, not his convention, was a “drag” on Paxton’s campaign.
This isn’t an exposure problem, it’s a message problem. Republican voters — which include not just registered Republicans, but swing voters including conservative-leaning independents and even Democrats — are not getting behind Paxton or any Republican candidate with the same margins that supported Trump in 2024 and brought a GOP majority into power in the Senate the same cycle.
open image in galleryAnd if Ken Paxton is worried about Trump’s effect on his campaign, the implications for Republicans could be disastrous. A victory in Texas puts a Senate majority cleanly in play as a possibilty for Democrats in January. There’s a second issue, too: If the problems with Paxton’s campaign extend beyond the candidate himself, who withstood a landslide of negative advertising earlier this year tied to his messy divorce scandal and allegations of misuse of his office, then the risks are serious not just for Paxton but Republicans everywhere. Texas, while trending purple for decades, remains a Republican bastion. Simply put, if polling is correct and not just Paxton but also Gov. Gregg Abbott is also in danger of losing in November, then Republican Senate candidates could easily be in trouble in states like Kansas, Iowa, and Alaska.
The Senate map seems to be expanding for Democrats by the week. As October begins, Donald Trump has more ground to cover than ever as he launches a marathon sprint to defend the future of his policy agenda.
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Donald TrumpKen PaxtonTexasJohn CornynNFL
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