Netanyahu’s far-right coalition on course to lose majority in Israeli elections, new poll suggests
Por Maira Butt — – World RSS Feed
Netanyahu’s far-right coalition on course to lose majority in Israeli elections, new poll suggests
Exclusive: A poll of 4,000 Israelis shows that it is unlikely that Netanyahu’s bloc will hold on to power when the country votes next week
Maira Butt Thursday 22 October 2026 11:42 BST
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Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu could lose the far-right coalition underpinning his current government when the country votes next week in a crucial election, according to a new poll.
Elections in Israel will take place on 27 October with the country using proportional representation to secure its leadership.
Around three million voters will seek to fill 120 seats in the Knesset with Israelis voting for their preferred party and not a particular politician.
No party has ever won the 61 seats required to secure a majority outright, meaning that the country regularly relies on the formation of a coalition government. A party must win at last 3.25 per cent of the national vote to enter parliament.
open image in galleryAccording to preliminary polls of 4,000 Israeli participants by Agam Labs, in conjunction with Hebrew University, Netanyahu’s far-right coalition is unlikely to survive the election.
Netanyahu’s Likud party currently has 32 seats in government and has formed a coalition with Shas which has 11. Bezalel’s Smotrich’s Religious Zionism has seven and far-right security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudt holds six seats, with New Hope on four. It meant that Netanyahu’s government held 60 seats while the opposition had 59 with one seat unaffiliated.
Based on the responses, the most likely scenario would see the right-wing “Haredi” bloc – including Netanyahu’s Likud and Shas – securing 52-54 seats, falling short of a majority. That includes a drop in seats for Likud with 19 and a decrease to six for Shas.
According to the projections, this bloc also includes right-wing party Amcha, which is predicted to clear the threshold to enter Knesset.
open image in galleryMeanwhile, the opposition, led by Yashar’s Gadi Eisenkot, is predicted to secure the most seats with 20 although other liberal parties it could form a coalition with are forecast to collectively pool less votes than the right-wing.
But it still leaves Netanyahu’s bloc short of a majority meaning that it could have to bring in The Reservists and Economic Party, a centre-right group which positions itself as a “third bloc” in Israeli politics.
“Israel’s election is not a single game, but a tournament — and election day is only the opening round,” Dr Nimrod Nir of Agam Labs told The Independent.
“Our polling suggests that neither bloc is likely to secure a governing majority, leaving three possible outcomes: a unity government bringing Netanyahu together with more liberal parties, an alternative coalition backed by Arab parties, or yet another election.
open image in gallery“The one outcome that appears increasingly unlikely is Netanyahu retaining his current far-right coalition, but that doesn’t mean his opponents have a clear path to power. The real political drama will begin the morning after the election.”
Agam Labs’ two other scenarios includes the prospect of only one “third bloc” party clearing the threshold, leaving both the right-wing and liberal blocs short of a majority. This increases the potential seats secured by Arab parties, which could be enough for either group.
If both Amcha Israel and The Reservists miss the threshold, then this leaves the right-wing group with between 51-54 seats and the liberal group with 50-54. Arab parties would have 15-18 seats, meaning that the lack of a clear coalition could spark another election.
The publishing of election polls is illegal in Israel after Friday. The ban extends to social media and direct messages to voters.
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Benjamin NetanyahuIsraelKnessetLikud
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