Mélenchon’s plan to beat the far right: Grab the first-time voters

Por Victor Goury-Laffont — POLITICOPolitics » POLITICO

PARIS — French far-left presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon is betting his blunt style and socially radical agenda will convince first-time voters to back him en masse and propel him into a runoff duel against far-right front-runner Marine Le Pen in 2027.

After embracing similar tactics in regional elections earlier this year, Mélenchon has increasingly set himself up on the campaign trail as a foil to the anti-immigration Le Pen by embracing a vision of what he calls “a new France” that celebrates diversity rooted in immigration. 

The position makes him an outlier domestically — most French politicians believe the Republic should be colorblind — and in much of Europe, where leaders across the political spectrum have tried to project toughness on migration to contain the rise of nationalist forces like Le Pen’s National Rally. Mélenchon’s opponents also accuse him of playing identity politics and openly courting minority voters, Muslims in particular.

But polls show the plan is working at the moment.

A survey conducted by Cluster17 exclusively for POLITICO last week had Mélenchon tied for second place with center-right candidate Edouard Philippe at 19%. And a Harris Interactive poll released Monday showed the pugnacious former teacher at 18% — against 16% for Philippe. Le Pen remained well ahead of the pack in both surveys, receiving more than 30% of the vote.

The Cluster17 poll showed 47% of respondents younger than 35 backed Mélenchon. That’s more than twice the 22% that Le Pen, who placed second among that demographic, was seen receiving.

Strategists from Mélenchon’s party, France Unbowed, told POLITICO that they believe young voters, working-class citizens and those with immigrant roots will be motivated to head to the polls for the first time to back their champion given his platform.

Mélenchon is the only leading candidate accusing the French state of pushing systemic racism and Islamophobia and denouncing police brutality. He is Israel’s most vocal critic on the French political stage. And he has promised ambitious policies to tackle climate change, including shifting towards 100% renewable energy.

Road to the second round

France Unbowed points to the Paris suburb of Saint-Denis — a former home of French royalty, now one of the capital region’s poorest suburbs and home to a large working-class population, many of them of immigrant descent — as potential proof of concept.

Mélenchon won nearly 50% of the vote in the first round of the 2022 presidential election in the district that includes the Paris suburb of Saint-Denis. Turnout was 61.2%, whereas the national average was 73.7%. 

And France Unbowed scored its biggest-ever victory there when its candidate, Bally Bagayoko, scored a decisive victory in local elections earlier this year, netting more than 50% of the vote in the first round and negating the need for a runoff.

But Mélenchon remains a divisive figure. Seventy-three percent of those polled by Cluster17 earlier this month said there was little to no chance they would ever vote for the France Unbowed leader. Only 62% felt the same way about Le Pen.

“France Unbowed has built a strong, cross-class core,” said a parliamentarian for the rival center-left Socialist Party, who was granted anonymity to discuss his opponents’ campaign. “But enlarging their base seems very difficult.”

As things stand, Mélenchon’s strategy of zooming in on voters who are most likely to vote for him appears to be tracing a path towards the runoff. On the flip side, polling indicates that he would lose by a significant margin against Le Pen in a second round — though pollsters and political scientists urge caution when it comes to polling a runoff so early in a campaign.

“You need to take things one step at a time. Running a runoff campaign before the first round is a grave mistake that has cost several favorites their election in the past,” said Antoine Léaument, a France Unbowed lawmaker and strategist.

Fonte: POLITICOPolitics » POLITICO