How did von der Leyen’s ‘independence moment’ hold up over 12 months?

Por Gerardo Fortuna — War in Ukraine – POLITICO

Ursula von der Leyen used her set piece speech last year to declare Europe’s “independence moment.” Twelve months later, the European Commission president’s record shows the EU’s independence still very much depends on its national capitals.

One year after her last State of the Union address, von der Leyen has delivered most clearly where the Commission could act largely on its own: writing laws and funding initiatives on core topics like tech, trade and social policy.

She struggled most where success required member countries to agree, surrender more control to Brussels or build genuinely new European capabilities — particularly on defense.

“The issue of defense plays a completely different role in Europe than it did just two years ago,” said Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, the liberal chair of the European Parliament’s security and defense committee, pointing to a series of “very valuable programs” launched over the past year.

But, she added, “all efforts are reaching their limits, because national self-interest continues to play a major role.”

That tension runs through POLITICO’s assessment of the promises in von der Leyen’s last State of the Union address.

Of more than 40 announcements — broadly defined as commitments that could plausibly be turned into action — roughly 15 politically significant commitments stand out. Von der Leyen framed promises including a drone wall, an India trade deal and an affordable housing plan as part of a wider push for European sovereignty.

Where von der Leyen struggled was with the promises that were supposed to change what Europe actually is and create its supposed “independence moment.”

Those were the promises that made last year’s speech feel bigger than a normal Commission work program. And those are the areas where the gap between ambition and reality remains widest. 

Clearest misses

Few lines from last year’s speech were more memorable than von der Leyen’s promise to build a “drone wall.” The idea was presented as a jointly developed, real-time European capability to detect and counter aerial threats. 

The concept quickly ran into political resistance at the informal European Council meeting in Copenhagen on Oct. 1, and evolved into a broader counter-drone action plan. The integrated European capability as originally advertised did not materialize within the year.

The second major miss was von der Leyen’s plan to use immobilized Russian assets to fund a reparations loan for Ukraine.

It was one of the most creative financing ideas put forward by the EU. It also ran straight into legal and political problems. 

By December 2025, EU leaders were still asking officials to keep working on the technical details. In the end, Europe agreed on a €90 billion Ukraine loan with more conventional financing through EU borrowing and backed by the EU budget. 

Then there was the European Defence Semester. The name itself was ambitious: regular EU-level scrutiny and coordination of national defense efforts, echoing the European Semester used to grade capitals’ economic policy. 

That concept never really took shape. What emerged was closer to an annual defense-readiness reporting and coordination exercise, leaving member countries with considerably more control. 

Clearest success 

The performance improves once you move away from the Europe von der Leyen described as “in a fight” and toward its traditional peace project ambitions — things the Commission can directly propose or organize.  

Her trade goals represent a virtual clean sweep. The Commission followed through on its diversification agenda, including negotiations with India — the deal arrived slightly later than von der Leyen had promised, but the substance was delivered. The Mercosur trade deal with Latin America also provisionally entered into force, after over a quarter century of negotiations.

Social policy was also one of the strongest areas. The Commission produced an affordable housing plan in December 2025, followed by an act this week. In May, von der Leyen announced an anti-poverty strategy.

Industrial and technology policy also moved forward in line with what she promised, including initiatives covering batteries, the cloud, AI and energy grids.

The announced Industrial Accelerator Act and its “Made in Europe” provisions, which would seek to channel public procurement to drive green industrial development, landed in March and is now being reviewed by the Council and Parliament.

Notably, much of the work came from commissioners belonging to political families other than von der Leyen’s own European People’s Party, including socialist and liberal members of the College. 

Foreign policy also produced some clear results in line with the commitments of last year’s State of the Union speech. The EU held the promised high-level meeting on abducted Ukrainian children in May, and another sanctions package against Russia was adopted in October 2025. 

The Commission also delivered the announced European Democracy Shield, while the European Centre for Democratic Resilience began operating in February 2026. The plans in the initiative may have seriously disappointed lawmakers, but the body is indeed working on three programs led by France, Poland and Sweden to improve the EU’s defense against misinformation.

Even one of the smaller promises came through: the European firefighting hub in Cyprus was launched in time for the 2026 fire season. 

The awkward middle 

Some promises sit somewhere between success and failure, with the fairest label being “in progress.” 

Social-media restrictions for children are one example. Von der Leyen promised that experts would examine possible European measures and explicitly cited Australia’s approach, which bans under-16s from holding social media accounts and puts the responsibility for enforcing the age limit on the platforms themselves.

That process took place, and the issue has moved considerably further up the EU political agenda. But the decisive step — an EU-wide restriction regime — remains unfinished. 

The same applies to parts of her Israel policy shift. Von der Leyen used last year’s speech to promise sanctions against extremist ministers and violent settlers, a partial suspension of EU-Israel trade preferences and a donor mechanism for Palestine. 

Some of that agenda moved. Further sanctions were adopted against extremist settlers, and the Palestine donor structure became real, including the €883.6 million Team Gaza Initiative to coordinate funding for Gaza’s early recovery, launched in July. 

But the most politically consequential measure — suspending trade provisions under the EU-Israel Association Agreement — did not become the EU-wide action her speech suggested. Once again, it fell victim to capitals’ reticence.

The Quality Jobs Act is another delayed commitment. It was presented as a significant social-policy initiative, but the Commission is still putting out feelers and has not yet produced the promised legislative act. That makes it a one-year miss — but not an abandoned proposal.

On migration, much of what von der Leyen promised last year involved implementing policies that were already under way, particularly the Migration Pact. However, one of the more identifiable new ideas — a dedicated sanctions regime targeting smugglers and traffickers — has yet to become the operational instrument the announcement suggested.

And if migration remains one of the headline issues in her next speech, that will say something about how unfinished the agenda still is.

Eliza Gkritsi contributed to this report.

Fonte: War in Ukraine – POLITICO