Trump demanded gerrymandered districts ahead of the midterms. His plan could backfire badly
Por Isabel Keane — – World RSS Feed
Trump demanded gerrymandered districts ahead of the midterms. His plan could backfire badly
Democrats have a 69 percent probability of winning the House, compared to Republicans’ 31 percent, according to a new analysis
Isabel Keane in New York Sunday 20 September 2026 12:52 BST
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For over a year, President Donald Trump has been pressuring Republican-led states to redraw their congressional districts with the hope of gaining more seats in November’s midterm elections.
But, according to a new analysis, not only does the multi-state gerrymander look unlikely to work — it may even put more Democrats in power.
Democrats have a 69 percent probability of winning the House, compared to Republicans’ 31 percent, according to a forecast on Thursday from Decision Desk Headquarters.
Last year, numerous Republican-led states under pressure from Trump began pursuing congressional redistricting. While Democrats feared the effort would lead to Republicans maintaining the majority, current data suggests otherwise.
“Redistricting doesn’t look likely to save Republicans in the House. Not only are Democrats favored to capture the House, but they may even gain seats in the redistricted states,” said Geoffrey Skelley, the chief elections analyst for Decision Desk HQ.
open image in galleryThe forecast predicts Democrats will win an average of 13 seats in the states with unchanged boundaries, and an average of two seats gained from the nine states that were redistricted.
Across the forecast’s 1 million simulations, Democrats won an average seat majority of 229-206. This would mean a 14-seat gain for Democrats from the current 220-215 GOP majority.
“In our forecast for the unchanged states, Democrats win an average of nearly 150 seats, up from the 137 they currently control,” Skelley wrote.
“Meanwhile, the redistricted states do not come close to offsetting that shift. In those nine states, Democrats win a small gain, on average, going from 78 to 80 seats.”
In Texas, which kicked off the redistricting race by Republican-led states at Trump’s urging last summer, “Republicans are averaging a bit under a two-seat gain, roughly three seats short of their ideal,” Skelley wrote.
Some of these redrawn districts are home to heavily Latino communities, where Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vincente Gonzalez, both Democrats, are expected to hold on to their seats on the November 3 election.
open image in galleryDemocrats are forecast to have a 1 in 3 shot of holding onto the newly-drawn 35th district, as well as a 1 in 3 chance of defeating incumbent GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz in the 15th District. They also have a 1 in 5 chance of flipping the 23rd District, held by the controversy-stricken Brandon Herrera. Herrera has drawn scrutiny after a CNN review of his videos, podcast appearances and social media posts found years of derogatory and explicit comments about women. He has said his online content includes “dark humor.”
It comes after Trump argued Republicans were “entitled” to pick up five more House seats in Texas.
“We should have many more seats in California. It’s all gerrymandered,” Trump told CNBC’s Squawk Box. “And we have an opportunity in Texas to pick up five seats. We have a really good governor, and we have good people in Texas. And I won Texas. I got the highest vote in the history of Texas, as you probably know, and we are entitled to five more seats.”
Florida may also see Republicans underperform come November 3, even though redistricting was done to target four Democratic-held seats. Two of those seats are currently held by Democrats who are favored to win their races, according to Skelley.
The odds seem similar in Ohio, where three Democrats are likely to keep their seats this Election Day while Rep. Max Miller’s district may be more of a toss-up amid allegations of domestic abuse related to his ex-wife. He has denied the allegations.
open image in galleryMeanwhile, Democratic-led California responded to Texas’ redraw with a ballot measure that was approved in a statewide vote in November 2025 that implemented a retaliatory gerrymander targeting five GOP-held seats.
The move could give Democrats four out of five seats.
“A potential Republican win there, as well as outside shots in districts such as the 13th, 45th, and GOP-held 48th help keep Democrats from averaging the full-on five-seat gain they want in California,” Skelley wrote.
Missouri is the latest state to enter a redistricting battle. However, the state’s Supreme Court shot down a new map that was backed by Trump, saying that the changes would have to be approved by voters in the fall before the lines could be redrawn.
A federal appeals court was considering the new redistricting on Thursday.
The state will likely use the same lines as it did in 2022 and 2024. The Decision Desk HQ has a freeze on Missouri’s forecast until the legal battle over the map is settled.
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