Canada might not join the EU. Why Trump slapped down the idea anyway

Por Megan Messerly and Daniel Desrochers — POLITICO – TOP Stories

Canada isn’t likely to join the European Union anytime soon.

But President Donald Trump’s immediate and draconian threat on Wednesday to impose “serious tariffs” or cease trading with Europe if it does underscores how seriously the administration regards efforts from other countries to band together and counter U.S. muscle.

So-called “middle-powers” uniting could blunt Trump’s ability to use the U.S.’s massive economy to bully countries to do his bidding. It also undermines the narrative that the country is in an economic “golden age,” said a former Trump official, granted anonymity to discuss the Canada-EU proposal.

“It’s kind of hard to claim it’s the golden age if countries are turning away from you economically, especially your neighbor,” the official said. “The action literally punctures the Trump narrative that we’re in the golden age. If we’re in the golden age, people wouldn’t be turning to Europe. People wouldn’t be turning to Canada.”

The president’s threat comes at a tumultuous time. Canada and the U.S. are in the middle of a trade war, levying billions of dollars worth of tariffs on each other following the collapse of trade negotiations last month. Europe, meanwhile, is in the middle of a long-term effort to be less reliant on the United States — economically and militarily — in part because of Trump’s threats and demands.

Speaking to the European Parliament on Thursday, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney sketched out why closer ties would be mutually beneficial but declined to give full-throated approval to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s surprise “associate member” plan, which she announced on Wednesday without offering specifics of what that might entail. And von der Leyen is getting pushback from member states for floating the proposal without first securing their agreement.

The Trump administration on Thursday dismissed the feasibility of the European Union welcoming Canada in as an associate member.

“Canada and the EU have had a comprehensive trade agreement for many years already, and a closer arrangement with the EU likely would implicate significant sovereignty issues where Canada has recently expressed concerns,” a U.S. official said. “As the U.S. is reducing its role as the global consumer of last resort, it is not clear that either Canada or the EU are ready to take up that mantle to absorb each other’s production.”

Still, if a country so deeply integrated with the U.S. economy can walk away from a trade deal — and successfully build deeper ties elsewhere — it could offer a model for others hoping to stand up to Trump and reduce their dependence on the United States.

“Look, the whole premise of the Trump trade doctrine is that every country is dependent on the United States for their economies, and Trump has used that leverage to get better trade deals from these countries by saying we won’t trade with you if you don’t do A, B and C — and that puts them in great danger,” said Steven Moore, a longtime Trump economic adviser. “The idea that these countries can decouple from the United States is a dangerous proposition for them, and would hurt us as well.”

But any shift away from economic dependence on the U.S. won’t come quickly — or easily. Canada sends roughly 72% of its exports to the United States, while Europe’s economy remains deeply intertwined with the U.S.’s, with EU-U.S. trade reaching an estimated $1.6 trillion last year.

“The political theater of all of this is A+++. But that’s mostly what this is,” said Kelly Ann Shaw, one of Trump’s top trade advisers during his first administration. “Substantively we have some narrow targeted retaliatory measures between the United States and Canada but the vast majority of trade is unaffected and still trading duty free. At some point this is likely to resolve but politically, it is clearly helping Carney domestically to keep this going.”

Already, the EU has sought to soothe Trump’s wrath. Olof Gill, the deputy chief spokesperson for the European Commission, emphasized that the EU is not trying to antagonize Trump.

“The proposed strengthening of our partnership with Canada is not against anyone else, but for our common strength,” Gill said.

Nevertheless, Carney has made reducing Canada’s reliance on the U.S. a central focus of his government, as the bilateral relationship is pushed to the breaking point by Trump’s trade threats, repeated talk of making Canada the 51st state and other derisive comments. The Canadian prime minister has set a goal of doubling non-U.S. exports over the next decade and has called on other middle powers — a term he popularized in a seminal speech in Davos earlier this year — to deepen their economic ties with one another.

There are early signs of movement. After the U.S. ratcheted up tariffs on aluminum, Canadian exports to the U.S. dropped significantly, while metal exports to Europe made up the gap. The Carney administration also secured two long-term deals to export liquified natural gas to Europe — with Ottawa’s stated goal of increasing natural gas exports outside of the U.S. to an estimated 55% by the early-to-mid 2030s, after sending nearly all of its natural gas exports to the U.S. in 2024.

And Canadian exports to the U.S. dropped 6.6% in July, marking the biggest decrease since April 2025, according to recent data from Statistics Canada, ahead of U.S. tariffs and bans on more than $20 billion worth of goods. Exports to countries other than the U.S. jumped 7.4% in the same month, boosted by stronger exports of crude, nuclear fuel and metals to the Netherlands, Germany and China.

“We are looking for partnerships which are not only of interest for the economic cooperation or tech cooperation, but as well where we actually share values,” said Jovita Neliupšienė, the EU’s Ambassador to the US.

The push for closer ties between Canada and the EU goes deeper than the topline economic numbers, with Carney outlining “critical minerals, defense industrial capacity, AI and computers, energy security, space and payments” as top priorities for strategic cooperation in an address to the European Parliament on Thursday.

But the EU remains reliant on the U.S. market — one of the largest in the world — and has increasingly grown wary of China’s rising economic power, particularly its ability to flood the market in key industries, like automobiles and steel.

“I think there is a moderate risk” of Canada turning away from the U.S. “but I don’t want to overstate it,” said Brad Stetser, a former senior adviser to the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office in the Biden administration. “At the end of the day, Canada and the United States … are natural trading partners.”

Zi-Ann Lum, Stefanie Bolzen, Camille Gijs and Victor Goury-Laffont contributed to this report.

Fonte: POLITICO – TOP Stories