Trump throws Netanyahu a last-minute lifeline. It may not be enough.

Por Jan Philipp Burgard — POLITICO – TOP Stories

TEL AVIV — President Donald Trump’s political brand is still riding high in Israel — but it may not save Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from an electoral defeat next Tuesday.

Despite providing an important signal of support from the leader of Israel’s most crucial ally, Trump’s last-minute endorsement of Netanyahu this week landed amid a series of opinion polls that show the prime minister’s governing coalition falling several seats short of a parliamentary majority.

“It looks unlikely that Trump alone can help him make up such significant ground when nothing else has worked,” said Dahlia Scheindlin, a veteran pollster and prominent Israeli political analyst.

Netanyahu’s coalition held 60 of the 120 seats in the Knesset before parliament was dissolved in July, and recent polls suggest his bloc could erode in next week’s election. A Walla survey published Tuesday projected just 48 seats for Netanyahu and his allies — 13 short of the 61 needed to form a government. A separate Channel 12 poll put his bloc at 51 seats.

The Walla poll also showed the party of Gadi Eisenkot, Netanyahu’s main challenger, widening its lead over the prime minister’s Likud party to four seats, though with neither bloc securing a majority.

Trump’s endorsement might gain Netanyahu one additional seat, said Michael Oren, who served as Israel’s ambassador to the United States from 2009 to 2013. It “would have had a bigger impact six or seven months ago,” he added, pointing to public dissatisfaction with the outcome of the U.S. war against Iran.

Trump remains hugely popular among Jewish Israelis, with 79% expressing confidence in his handling of international affairs, according to a Pew Research Center survey from June. It’s a big contrast from his standing inside the United States, where the economic fallout from the U.S. war against Iran has helped drag his polling to historic lows.

Trump’s record dating back to his first term includes recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, moving the U.S. Embassy there, brokering the Abraham Accords and taking a hard line against Iran — policies that have earned him considerable goodwill in Israel. He’s also forged a tight personal relationship with Netanyahu, who has long presented his ties with the U.S. president as a major political asset.

The prime minister has yet to achieve such closeness with Trump’s vice president, JD Vance, who declined to endorse Netanyahu on Monday, saying that “I’m not getting involved in Israeli elections.”

That non-endorsement will have no impact on Israeli voters, Oren predicted. But he accused Vance of applying a double standard, noting that the vice president had rallied in Budapest alongside then-Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in April.

“One does not get the sense that he is a tremendous fan of Netanyahu,” Oren said.

Some were more bullish about Trump’s impact on the election, telling POLITICO that his support could prove pivotal in a country where relations with Washington remain a central concern for voters. A survey by the Israel Democracy Institute found that half of respondents in Israel consider the relationship with the United States an important factor in deciding which party to support in the election.

“The United States is seen as Israel’s indispensable ally and big brother,” said Shai Bazak, a political communications expert who advised Netanyahu during his first term but is now a critic of his former boss. “And because Israelis understand the importance of the U.S.-Israel relationship, even small gestures can make a difference in this election.”

‘Trump is Trump’

Despite the long rapport between Trump and Netanyahu, many experienced political observers in Israel were caught off guard by the U.S. president’s endorsement. And so were at least some American diplomats.

“The endorsement took us completely by surprise,” a senior U.S. diplomat told POLITICO after being granted anonymity to speak candidly. “There had been no indication whatsoever that it was coming, even shortly beforehand. But Trump is Trump.”

Just a day before the Sunday endorsement, two senior members of his administration had publicly criticized violence by extremist Israeli settlers in the West Bank — an issue that has become a source of friction between Washington and Netanyahu’s government.

U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee condemned last week’s attack on Heidi Levine, an American photojournalist, describing it on X as “a despicable act of terror carried out by masked cowards.”

Huckabee called for a thorough investigation, arrests and prosecutions, arguing that those responsible should spend years behind bars.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio was similarly forceful.

“We have urged the Israelis, and continue to urge them, to take decisive action against this,” he said.

The criticism underscored tensions between Washington and Jerusalem, making Trump’s subsequent endorsement all the more striking.

Fears of a friendless Israel

Just before Trump weighed in, Yonatan Shalev, a rising figure in Israeli politics, had accused Netanyahu’s government of pushing Israel toward diplomatic estrangement.

“One of the most damaging consequences of this government’s policies is Israel’s growing international isolation,” Shalev told POLITICO.

“My generation has a responsibility to restore Israel’s standing in the world,” Shalev said. “We want people in America to look at Israel and see a modern, democratic and innovative country.”

At 24, Shalev is positioned to enter the Knesset after Tuesday’s election, potentially becoming the youngest lawmaker in the Israeli parliament’s history. He holds a favorable spot on the candidate list of Beyachad — Hebrew for “Together” — the electoral alliance led by former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid.

Trump’s endorsement now gives Netanyahu a powerful counterargument to critics who say he has jeopardized Israel’s relationship with its closest ally. In a Truth Social post, the president called Netanyahu “a Great Warrior Prime Minister, and an even greater Partner for Peace in combatting the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

“This is the kind of Partner that the United States of America is demanding of Israel, a Country for which it has done so much,” wrote Trump, adding: “BIBI NETANYAHU WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN!”

But whether that translates into votes is another question.

“It looks like a win for Netanyahu, since this is an unprecedented and full-throated endorsement from the U.S. President,” said Scheindlin, the pollster and analyst. “However, very little has happened to change the Prime Minister’s overall position for two years; his coalition’s total poll numbers have been stuck well below a majority that whole time and remain so in yesterday’s polls.”

Among other drawbacks, Scheindlin said, opponents can note that Netanyahu failed to meet with Trump during last month’s U.N. General Assembly in New York, that the U.S. overrode Israel’s wishes by forcing ceasefires in Iran and Lebanon, and that “Trump has said Netanyahu does what he wants.”

“They will speak about 12 countries that have recently placed sanctions on Israel and the horizon of global isolation that is fast approaching either way,” she said.

With just days left before the election, the prime minister faces a more immediate logistical question: Is there still time to put up giant campaign billboards showing him shaking hands with Trump?

Likud used precisely that image during the 2019 election campaign. It may now have a reason to bring it back.

Jan Philipp Burgard is a reporter for the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network, of which POLITICO is a member.

Fonte: POLITICO – TOP Stories