Once secret, France’s practice nuclear raids send a message to Putin

Por Laura Kayali — War in Ukraine – POLITICO

TAVERNY, France — The French air force is drawing on wars in Ukraine and the Middle East to help shape its nuclear strike training — and is increasingly willing to talk about it to deter Russia.

Four times a year, about 50 French aircraft take to the skies for Operation Poker to rehearse a nuclear attack on an enemy country.

With atomic weapons back at the center of Europe’s security debate, France wants its air-launched nuclear-armed cruise missiles to be a credible deterrent. Jets carrying them need to get through enemy air defenses: Drones, radars and missiles are advancing fast, and France has to keep pace.

“It’s clear that our competitors today don’t operate the way they did 10 years ago — and neither do we, for that matter. Everyone is making progress and keeping an eye on each other,” Gen. Stéphane Virem, the commander of the French air force’s nuclear arm, told three media outlets, including POLITICO, in a rare interview.

New tactics and equipment are built into the rehearsal’s scenarios, he said. “Technological innovations are happening at breakneck speed in every field. We have to adapt to that pace to find a way to counter them; it’s always the sword against the shield,” the general explained, listing delivery aircraft, detection systems, surface-to-air defenses and satellites.

France’s nuclear weapons have always been a crucial part of the country’s defense strategy. Shifting geopolitics — Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin’s regular nuclear threats and growing doubts over U.S. commitment to European security — mean its atomic arsenal is even more important. In March, French President Emmanuel Macron announced France would increase the number of nuclear warheads.

Paris also maintains that its “vital interests” have a strong European dimension, meaning an attack on the continent could potentially trigger a French response — however, the threshold for use of atomic weapons remains deliberately ambiguous.

Macron, the leader of the EU’s only nuclear power, initiated a dialogue with several European countries to discuss nuclear cooperation, with nations such as Germany, Sweden, Finland and Poland already on board. Ultimately, they could participate in Poker operations.

But France’s presidential election next year could change the terms. Far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, who’s polling ahead, said European nations must buy French equipment if they want to benefit from the protection of Paris’ nuclear deterrent.

“The only relevant question should be: Is a French nuclear deterrent covering non-French vital interests credible?” asked André Leblanc, defense and security fellow with the Institut Montaigne think tank. “Since the French nuclear force has never been used, its credibility rests notably on the consistency of strategic signals communicated steadily and sparingly in the long term.”

Despite those worries, Russia is paying attention. This week, the Kremlin described France’s test launch ​of a nuclear-capable missile from a submarine — observed in person by Macron — as part of a “dead-end” strategy.

Public posture

Credibility is also increasingly about being heard — and seen — by both allies and rivals.

“Our mission is to penetrate enemy defenses to guarantee to the president — and to a competitor — that if he threatens our vital interests, we will go and inflict unacceptable damage on him,” Virem said.

Since March, to keep adversaries guessing, France no longer discloses how many nuclear warheads it has — an approach Macron calls “strategic ambiguity.”

However, France has ramped up its shows of force, and Virem’s public comments about Poker underline France’s more visible nuclear posture. Until recently, French military officers wouldn’t even confirm the operation’s existence.

That comes as fears rise that Russia could attack a NATO country by the end of the decade — a warning repeated by alliance defense ministers, generals and military analysts.

Now, Virem is providing an unusual amount of detail about Poker. For example, he said, the French air force debriefs on the results of the simulated launches of the ASMPA-R nuclear cruise missile (no actual missile is fired). Crews also assess the losses that would be sustained on the French side when penetrating enemy air defenses.

Poker, he explained, is an “actual operation,” which means it doesn’t have to abide by the same peacetime rules as regular, more constrained military training.

That “gives me more leeway to go much further than if it were just a drill, particularly when it comes to safety standards” on flying over rough seas and on crew duty time, the general said. “Our training focuses on very high-intensity scenarios in a degraded environment, amid chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear threats and attacks on national territory.”

Keeping up with the tech

Paris is currently carrying out a major program to modernize its airborne and seaborne nuclear deterrent. Despite strained public finances, the government’s 2027 budget proposes €63.4 billion for military expenditures — compared with €57 billion this year — including about 12% earmarked for nuclear deterrence.

Last year, Macron announced France would reopen a fourth nuclear air base in Luxeuil, less than 100 kilometers from the German border, adding to existing ones in Istres, Avord and Saint-Dizier. By 2035, Luxeuil will host two squadrons of F5-standard Rafale fighter jets equipped with ASN4Gs, France’s future nuclear-armed hypersonic cruise missile.  

France’s nuclear air force is also working on drone and counter-drone systems, even though it accepts that technology is moving so fast that existing systems may quickly become obsolete.

“Look at what’s happening in Ukraine today,” Virem said. “New drones appear and the fight against them plays out over very short periods. It’s exactly the same for us. We need to become much more agile.”

“We have to accept that the systems we test and implement may no longer be entirely up to date after a year—and that we replace them regularly,” he explained, adding that recent conflicts also show the importance of air-to-air missiles with longer ranges, suppression of enemy air defense capabilities and collaborative combat drones.

Another challenge, according to the general, is that the air force could eventually require 230 warplanes, against around 185 today, as nuclear-capable Rafale jets are also used for conventional missions.

The issue has been “raised several times” by France’s air and space force chief, Gen. Jérôme Bellanger, Virem said — but Macron’s promise to expand the air force did not make it into the latest military planning legislation adopted last summer.

France’s atomic weapons, however, would not be undermined by any economic difficulties, the general stressed. “The absolute priority — the heart of the heart — is nuclear deterrence … Trade-offs are always, always made in favor of deterrence.”

Fonte: War in Ukraine – POLITICO