‘Ship has sailed’: New poll shows even an end to the war or lower gas prices may not save Republicans

Por Erin Doherty and Jessie Blaeser — POLITICO – TOP Stories

Republicans are running out of ways to reverse their gloomy midterm prospects.

The POLITICO Poll finds most Americans see no clear way for the party to regain the advantage as the election reaches its final weeks, with even Republican voters skeptical that President Donald Trump could pull off a last-minute move that could shake up the campaign. And majorities of voters say they would not be more likely to vote Republican even if Trump were to pull off a major political feat before November — like announcing the Iran war was over, bringing the price of gasoline down by $1 or creating 100,000 new jobs.

That’s especially true of Democratic midterm and undecided voters: No matter the scenario or how significant the accomplishment, both groups hardly moved, the poll shows.

Voters’ perception of Trump’s actions and the economy are largely baked — a worrying sign for the GOP staring down an increasingly difficult landscape.

“I think a lot of the die is already cast,” said Mike Noble, the founder of Arizona-based polling firm Noble Predictive Insights. “It’s tough talking to Republicans, unless they’re just incredibly big die-hards. Like, how do they get motivated right now? Democrats are clearly motivated.”

There’s one other issue: Most Americans don’t believe Trump can even pull off the tasks that could give Republicans the best chance of winning, according to the poll conducted by independent firm PF Global.

“There’s nothing that Trump can do, and frankly, even if he did something, no one would believe it anyway at this point,” said one GOP operative working on battleground races, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the landscape.

Just over a quarter of Americans said they think Trump could bring gas prices down by $1 a gallon by Election Day. Similarly low shares said he could end the war in Iran (27%) or could bring grocery prices down significantly (27%).

But Trump’s own 2024 voters are not confident he could pull it off. Less than half — 43% — said Trump could bring gas prices down by $1 a gallon, with even smaller shares expressing confidence in his ability to deliver on other scenarios.

A Republican National Convention spokesperson criticized the poll for asking Democrats about voting Republican — although the survey asked all respondents the same question, regardless of their political affiliation — and accused POLITICO of “cherry-picking data to fit the media’s manufactured narrative that the sky is falling for Republicans, which is simply not the case.”

White House spokesperson Davis Ingle also said in a statement that “no one can dispute the fact that President Trump has created one of the most robust coalitions in political history with the MAGA movement, and the President understands how to communicate with them.”

“President Trump is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party, and he is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress,” Ingle said in a statement.

Those doubts reflect real-world obstacles. Trump has suggested for months that the war with Iran is in its final days, but U.S. military leaders have made no efforts to begin withdrawing personnel or equipment in the Middle East.

Bringing grocery and gas prices down significantly before Election Day presents more challenges. The war pushed up food prices from the field to the shelf: Fertilizer and fuel costs, critical for farm production, are high, and the impact of that is just starting to trickle through food supply chains. And even if the war ended today, U.S. gasoline prices would take months to return to prewar levels, energy experts have warned.

“Trump is saying himself that the war with Iran won’t end before the elections, and even if it did, it’s hard to see prices at the pump — or at the cash register — dropping at a level that slows the erosion below the GOP’s feet,” said GOP strategist Doug Heye.

The survey underscores how deeply American perceptions of Republicans’ prospects have hardened amid a difficult political environment for the GOP: Pluralities expect the Democratic Party to win control of both the House and Senate in November. That reality is due in part because majorities of both Democratic and Republican midterm voters expect their own side to win, but more Americans currently say they will vote for the Democrats.

The GOP is facing fires on multiple fronts. Outside groups are rushing to shore up red areas — including in places Trump won comfortably in 2024 — to try to stem devastating losses. Despite their bullishness about flipping the New Hampshire and Michigan Senate seats, they’ve effectively given up on the Senate contest in longtime battleground North Carolina.

For many Republicans, the question is no longer simply whether the party will suffer losses, but how significant they will be — and whether Republicans can still keep control of the upper chamber. Underpinning the dour landscape is a growing sense among those working on GOP campaigns that the party has few, if any, options left to reverse course.

Just 29% of Americans say a $1 decrease in gas prices — an increasingly difficult task — would make them more likely to vote Republican. A similar number, 28%, say ending the war with Iran would do the same. Meanwhile, 1 in 3 Americans say ending the war in Iran would have no real impact on their vote and another 20% maintain it would make them less likely to vote Republican.

Other long-shot scenarios — including securing a trade deal with China or inflation dropping to its lowest level in five years — had little impact on especially the Democratic and undecided voters Republicans need to win over.

In each case, very few undecided voters said they’d be more likely to vote Republican as a result of these kinds of changes. Most say they “don’t know” how these changes will impact their vote.

“The ship has sailed on any external event changing the dynamics of the election,” the GOP operative said.

Marcia Brown, Leo Shane and Alisa Vasquez contributed to this report.

Fonte: POLITICO – TOP Stories