Trump’s beef gamble isn’t paying off

Por Grace Yarrow and Myah Ward — POLITICO – TOP Stories

President Donald Trump gambled that importing more beef would lower prices enough to mitigate the political hit from angry ranchers.

His bet hasn’t paid off.

Prices have barely budged, ranchers remain incensed, and vulnerable Republicans in Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska and Texas are fighting to convince rural voters to turn out in November as farmers confront economic headwinds fueled by the president’s policies.

“There’s a lot of frustration and anger,” said Glenn Brunkow, the president of the nonpartisan Kansas Farm Bureau and a fifth-generation farmer and stockman in deep-red Pottawatomie County.

The president’s August proclamation to temporarily allow cheaper beef imports from countries like Brazil has knocked $200 to $400 off the value of an American cow, he said, which would otherwise sell for approximately $2,000.

“We knew it wouldn’t have much of an effect on the hamburger price in the store. But the markets took that news, and it really knocked the price we get for our cattle down,” Brunkow said.

“Then hit us with $6 diesel. This has been pretty pretty tough to swallow.”

Republicans from top beef-producing states, agriculture industry representatives and administration officials including Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins warned Trump his beef import plan would hurt ranchers and imperil Republican candidates. Those fears are coming to fruition with just weeks until what looks to be a bruising midterm election for the GOP, as declining profits pile atop frustration among voters who have long been a reliable part of the Republican base.

“It wasn’t worth the headache and what it did to the market,” said Jenna Stanton, federal policy director at Western Skies Strategies. “It’s doing exactly what we thought it was going to do, which was nothing.”

Incumbent Republicans including Sens. Pete Ricketts in Nebraska and Roger Marshall in Kansas are now facing surprisingly competitive races, while Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Iowa Rep. Ashley Hinson are polling behind in elections for critical Senate seats the GOP cannot afford to lose.

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said in a statement that Trump has “done more for American agriculture than anyone” through new trade deals, tackling high production costs and sweeping investments in the farmer-facing programs passed through Republicans’ policy megabill.

“At the same time, he is delivering on his promise to consumers by reducing beef prices while allowing our American beef herd to grow,” Kelly said. The President will continue taking actions to support our great farmers while driving economic prosperity for all Americans.”

The president’s proclamation included a provision that allows the administration to pause the tariff-free beef imports if grocery prices do not fall. Some of the president’s advisers have privately echoed calls from the powerful American Farm Bureau Federation and other industry groups to reconsider the plan.

“There’s still time left to pull this back,” said John Newton, the Farm Bureau’s vice president of public policy and economic analysis. “The communication’s been clear from the ranchers, from Capitol Hill, all over the country. This has been received the same way. I know the White House sees it. They don’t have their heads in the sand.”

Trump isn’t backing down. The White House isn’t currently planning to scale back or end the proclamation early, allowing it to expire as intended in November, according to two people familiar with the plans who were granted anonymity to discuss them.

“I did this one little thing because I think it’s very important, and it ends very quickly. And I’m not looking to renew it, but I do want them to produce more,” Trump told News Channel Nebraska on Monday, while again defending his decision in the name of lower prices.

“It really became unacceptable to the voter, and we do have to get elected,” Trump added. “Because if we’re not going to get elected, your ranchers and your farmers are in big trouble — if the Democrats got in.”

Trump’s proclamation encouraged grocery stores to sell the newly imported beef at a 25% discount but the American Farm Bureau Federation found that ground beef prices only came down about 2% overall in the 41 grocery stores its economists tracked across 22 states. In 30 of those stores, the price remained the same.

Nationally, the average price of ground beef was $6.92 a pound in August, up from $5.55 when Trump returned to the White House.

Any slight drop in prices could potentially be reflected in federal data set to be published next week, but likely won’t go beyond normal price fluctuations, economists say. That isn’t expected to do much to assuage voters’ broader cost-of-living concerns.

Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) told POLITICO that she’s still hearing from frustrated ranchers in her home state.

“It doesn’t help the price of beef at the grocery store,” Lummis said, calling Trump’s proclamation “somewhat self-defeating” and advising the White House to focus instead on how powerful meatpackers are influencing prices.

In some cases, the damage to farm states is already done. There is little immediate impact for consumers the administration can point to to justify the losses for ranchers, as analysts struggle to determine the true scale of the proclamation and impact at the grocery store. And the move has sent the wrong message to ranchers, who are making critical decisions about whether to slaughter or retain cattle to grow their herd next year, according to economists and industry leaders.

“I just think it’s had limited impact on consumer behavior, limited impact on family budgets. And it had a … significant negative impact on producers,” looking to rebuild their herds, said a person close to the administration, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly about their frustration. “Hopefully a lesson learned here.”

Fonte: POLITICO – TOP Stories