UK voters believe Burnham can win the next election

Por Tim Ross — POLITICOPolitics » POLITICO

LIVERPOOL, England —  Andy Burnham has radically shifted the public’s view of British politics, with a majority now saying they believe his Labour Party has a real chance of winning the next election, whenever it comes. 

That’s the verdict of a new POLITICO Poll from Public First, which captures the state of play after Burnham’s first two months as prime minister — and shows what voters want him to do if they’re going to give him more time in Downing Street. 

The poll, published at the POLITICO Pub at Labour’s annual conference in Liverpool, found 53% of voters believe Labour has a realistic shot at keeping power. That is a big increase from 33% in May — when Burnham’s predecessor Keir Starmer was in the final stages of his doomed premiership. 

Most headline polls ask voters which party they will vote for, and these results tend to show small shifts from one survey to the next. This poll looked at who voters expect to win the next election — capturing a different sense of the national mood to show the scale of the impact Burnham’s arrival has made on British politics.

The transformation in Labour’s credibility as an electoral force suggests the gamble the party’s MPs took in forcing Starmer out after a disastrous set of local and regional elections in May has paid off so far. Not only do headline voting intention polls now frequently put Labour narrowly in the lead, but the Public First results show the “Burnham bounce” has been noticed by voters, too. 

“Before Andy Burnham arrived on the Westminster scene, there was a sense that a Reform government was inevitable — that has now gone,” said Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First. “In an election where tactical voting could decide many key constituencies, being seen to be able to win could be just as important for Labour as being popular.” 

Reform’s image is diminishing

For Nigel Farage’s right-wing populist Reform UK, fortunes have reversed. Four months ago, almost two-thirds — 65% — said Reform had a genuine chance of winning, but that figure has now dropped to 47% in this month’s poll, after a succession of negative headlines over alleged funding scandals and a special election in his seat. 

Even so, more people believe Reform can still win the next election than think the party is completely out of the running. 

The Conservatives, however, remain deep in trouble, according to the poll: More voters discount them as realistic contenders for power than say they have a chance of victory. 

The next general election does not need to take place before 2029. But as Labour MPs and activists gathered in Liverpool for their annual party conference, newspapers reported that some of Burnham’s aides were pushing for a vote as soon as next spring — though the prime minister then explicitly ruled out an early election. 

Public First asked respondents whether they believed Burnham should call an election to gain legitimacy for his government. Around half think he should, while slightly more than one third think he doesn’t need to — a ratio that hasn’t changed significantly since he took over as Labour leader and PM. 

If Burnham were to trigger an election, 37% of respondents said they thought Labour would win a “close” vote, while 21% said they would expect Labour to lose. 

What voters want

The poll also identified what voters say are their top priorities and tested whether they believed Burnham is capable of delivering them. The results were mixed. 

The cost of living crisis remains the overriding concern for the public, cited as a top priority by 59% of respondents. Ominously for Burnham, a clear majority — 56% — think the government is not doing enough to address the issue and more people now blame Labour for the state of the economy than the Tories, who were in power for 14 years until July 2024.

In fact, 38% of respondents said their personal finances had got worse since Labour came to power. 

There is widespread skepticism about Burnham’s ability to make much of a difference. Only 20% of voters think his government will make real improvements to the cost of daily life, while 35% think he wants to help but won’t pull it off. Another 32% said Burnham was not really focused on the problem. 

Reform voters were the most skeptical — only 4% said they expected Burnham to help address the cost of living. 

Next month’s budget is a key risk for the government: 44% of respondents expect to be left worse off after Chancellor John Healey’s statement, with only 18% saying they think he will ease the pressure on their finances.

Over the longer term, people were more evenly split about their own prospects. When asked if they expected their personal finances to get better or worse over the next five years, 34% expected to see improvements, compared to 31% who thought their financial circumstances would worsen. 

Burnham’s personal approval rating remains significantly higher than other party leaders, with a net positive score of +16. Even so, it was slightly higher at +19 when he started in July, suggesting his popularity is stable or may have dipped. 

“Burnham still has to turn the belief in him into benefits which the public actually feels,” said Wride. “The budget may be the first real test. The public already feels worse off under Labour, and isn’t convinced Burnham can turn that around. He may be expected to win an election, but he isn’t yet expected to solve the cost of living — the problem that keeps costing governments elections.”

Public First surveyed 2,028 U.K. adults online Sept. 13-15, 2026. 

Fonte: POLITICOPolitics » POLITICO