Putin is testing NATO on Norway’s remote Arctic islands

Por Victor Jack — War in Ukraine – POLITICO

BARENTSBURG, Norway — For the best part of a century, the biggest threat to the residents of Svalbard was polar bears. Increasingly, it now comes from Russia. 

Fears are growing that Moscow could use the sprawling Arctic archipelago — a part of Norway with an unusual legal status — to test NATO militarily amid growing uncertainty over the U.S. commitment to European defense.

Allies suspect Russia of probing crucial undersea cables in the waters off Svalbard and staging military-style events that test the limits of the rules governing its presence there. As Russia ramps up hybrid attacks across Europe, Oslo is racing to boost its naval and surveillance capabilities to protect its northern flank, while local authorities on Svalbard are investing in critical infrastructure — and even have an evacuation plan in place.

“There is more tension in the Arctic and in the north, and of course also Svalbard is a part of that,” Norwegian Defense Minister Tore Sandvik told POLITICO. “We know that Russia … uses a lot of ways to try to provoke or find ways to do hybrid threats.”

Despite its status as Norwegian territory, the archipelago’s main island, Spitsbergen, is home to a Russian town.

For decades, Moscow and Oslo have largely kept tensions from boiling over — but that delicate balance is now under growing strain. Western countries are increasingly worried about Russian hybrid attacks in Europe and warn that Moscow could attempt a limited incursion against a NATO member by the end of the decade.

“Russian leadership is highly unpredictable and more and more risk prone,” said Kari Aga Myklebost, a Russian history professor and Svalbard expert at Norway’s Arctic University. “I wouldn’t close out any scenario when it comes to the Kremlin’s will to confront NATO.”

High North, high tension

For decades, Svalbard symbolized the Norwegian maxim “High North, low tension,” which saw efforts to build cooperation among Arctic countries, including Russia.

Beyond its remoteness — lying over 900 kilometers from mainland Norway — and its glacial temperatures, that was down to the archipelago’s unique status. Under a 1920 international treaty, countries recognized Oslo’s sovereignty over the islands and in return gained resource exploitation rights — with the Soviets buying the town of Barentsburg to mine local coal deposits soon after.

The treaty also forbade any nation from using Svalbard for “warlike purposes” including the construction of naval bases and fortifications, but Norway does visit the archipelago with coast guard and military vessels.

At its Cold War peak, 2,400 Soviet citizens lived on Spitsbergen, the only populated island, making up around 70% of its population.

Moscow has little incentive to upend the treaty because it could rebound against its own interests. With Russia’s northwestern Kola Peninsula — home to two-thirds of its nuclear second-strike submarines — sitting around 1,000 kilometers away, “Russia has been cautious to avoid any kind of escalation,” Myklebost said.

That makes it strategic for NATO, too. “In a military conflict … this is where the Russian submarines could enter the North Atlantic and hide at greater depths and pose a threat to NATO and the U.S.,” she argued. 

Yet tensions have grown following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Since 2022, local Russian officials have faced criticism for hosting a youth organization indirectly linked to the navy, announcing missile exercises nearby and holding annual parades with military insignia that once included a helicopter flyover. 

Moscow also began direct boat trips from Russia in 2024 and last year set up a chapter of the Russian Geographical Society, which is led by former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. 

“We call them gray zone provocations,” Myklebost said. “It’s a very cost-efficient way of asserting Russian presence and … challenging Norway’s jurisdiction.”

As a result, Norway’s intelligence services this year warned the Kremlin “aims to increase Russian scope for action in Svalbard.”

British, American and Norwegian forces this spring reportedly caught Russian vessels testing a secret subsea cable-cutting weapon off Svalbard’s coast.

Although Barentsburg’s coal reserves are dwindling, Moscow is not abandoning the town. Moscow provided state-owned Trust Arktikugol, which administers Barentsburg, with about 1.89 billion rubles (€20 million) in federal subsidies in 2025, according to its accounts.

Russia’s ambassador to Norway, Nikolay Korchunov, told POLITICO he wanted to see a “transformation of the economic activities” from coal to services in Barentsburg, and said Arktikugol was investing in maintaining the town. 

Cranes and scaffolding adorn many of Barentsburg’s Soviet-era buildings, which lie scattered across a jagged hill facing the imposing snow-specked Vøringen glacier — a sign of Russia’s continued interest.

But “we are not questioning any sovereignty of Norway,” Korchunov insisted. “We stress the necessity and importance of fulfilling all the Svalbard Treaty,” he said, accusing Oslo of contributing to a “negative trend towards NATO militarization of entire Baltic-Arctic region.”

On thin ice

Vice Adm. Rune Andersen, the chief of the Norwegian Joint Headquarters, said his priority was “striking that balance between deterrence but maintaining stability” on Svalbard, and remaining “calm and collected” on hybrid threats.

But given the “risks” of escalation, the military is investing to reinforce its surveillance capabilities, he said, including launching three new maritime mapping satellites next year — alongside “a renewal of the navy and coast guard … to have a continuous presence” nearby.

As it seeks to bolster its northern flank, Norway is purchasing five Type-26 anti-submarine frigates from Britain and six Type 212CD submarines from Germany. Oslo is also deepening military integration with its allies including London and Berlin, and this month conducted joint exercises around the northern Norwegian island of Jan Mayen.

NATO countries “are more often up in our waters,” said Sandvik, the minister. Defending Svalbard is also a part of NATO’s planning process, he said.

Locally, the strategy is to keep a lid on tensions. Svalbard’s Deputy Governor Katharina Rise said her office meets with Russia’s local consulate four times a year. “We have good and constructive dialogue,” she said. “It’s our responsibility to secure the stability and … low tension here.”

Terje Aunevik, the mayor of Longyearbyen, the main Norwegian town on Spitsbergen, said authorities had plans in place to rapidly evacuate the settlement if tensions flare.

With just two subsea internet cables, one airport, one water reservoir and one diesel-run power plant in Longyearbyen that depends on imports, Aunevik said “major investments” are underway, including the construction of two new water reservoirs by around 2029. “We are quite vulnerable in that perspective,” he said. 

Out in the cold 

Up close, Barentsburg doesn’t look particularly threatening. Few locals venture outside the several dozen crumbling buildings. A plume of smoke escapes the aging coal plant and a lonely hammer-and-sickle Soviet flag flaps in the wind. Barentsburg feels like an abandoned relic of a bygone era.

Some of the recent hybrid activity is also down to a local push for attention from Moscow, said Arild Moe, a research professor and Russia expert at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute think tank. “They’re playing on nationalist strengths … to get priorities and to get finance.” 

But Putin’s unpredictability and Trump’s repeated wavering on NATO remain wild cards.

With sabotage, cyberattacks and airspace violations across Europe mushrooming, fears are growing that Putin could escalate further, according to two NATO diplomats, who were granted anonymity to speak freely.

Anxiety is also palpable on Spitsbergen. In Barentsburg, “we don’t speak about [political] topics,” said a waitress from St. Petersburg who asked that her name not be used, while acknowledging locals fear a potential NATO-Russia war. “Of course this worries us,” she said.

“There is of course this constant chatter about if the Russian government wants to push a NATO member and Svalbard is the place where they would do it,” said Jonatan Svensson, an expedition guide who has lived in Longyearbyen for five years.

To assuage those fears, NATO should consider air patrols over Svalbard, shift defensive air assets to the north of mainland Norway and hold joint exercises nearby, the two NATO diplomats said, provided Oslo agreed and the measures complied with the Svalbard Treaty.

However, so far NATO has no public plans to boost its naval or air presence around the islands. But some worry the alliance’s current posture won’t be enough to deter Moscow.

In theory, it would be “really easy” for Russia to occupy Svalbard, said Ståle Ulriksen, a lecturer at the Royal Norwegian Naval Academy, if it flew in special forces from northern Russia and seized the airport. However, he argued such a scenario is unlikely.

Yet Moscow wouldn’t need to launch a full occupation. According to Myklebost, the analyst, Russia could stage an emergency affecting its local citizens and send in crisis management forces, a move that may not clearly trigger NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense clause.

“A worst-case scenario is a situation where Moscow sees an opportunity to test NATO cohesion,” she said. “Maybe Norway’s shouting for help from allies, and then you have Donald Trump saying: ‘No — we are not risking our good deals with Russia over this tiny island.’”

Fonte: War in Ukraine – POLITICO