Houthi advances leave Trump with only bad choices

Por Daniella Cheslow — POLITICOPolitics » POLITICO

The Trump administration is running out of good options in the Middle East after Iranian-backed Houthi militants seized more strategic territory — and further squeezed world energy markets.

The administration could join the fray after Yemeni forces, supported by Saudi Arabia, failed to repel the Houthis’ capture of the Red Sea port of Mokha and three islands key to controlling the waterway.

Or the White House could leave the region to sort out the Houthis alone, and bear the pain of oil prices that spiraled up to $109 a barrel Monday. The spike was caused by both the choking of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait passageway to the Red Sea and the closure of a critical Saudi Arabian oil pipeline following an attack Riyadh blamed on Iran-backed militias in Iraq.

Neither policy choice for the U.S. is terribly appealing, and one Arab diplomat in the region sensed inaction from the U.S., or “a kind of disregard.”

“They feel they don’t want to go into any conflict in the region besides Iran despite the fact it is a strategic setback to the U.S.,” added the diplomat, who, like others, was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive security issues.

In response to questions on the Houthi attack, a senior administration official sent POLITICO talking points it had first sent in mid-August, before the current escalation.

“The United States is focused on protecting our core national security interests — such as ensuring freedom of navigation in the Red Sea — while empowering our regional partners to take the lead in managing and resolving regional security challenges,” the official said both Monday and on Aug. 19.

The recycled statement also mentioned the U.S. expects the Houthis to observe the terms of a ceasefire reached last year that saw the rebel group agree to stop attacking American ships in exchange for the U.S. ending a bombing campaign against the Houthis that had hit at least 800 targets in Yemen.

Vice President JD Vance told reporters Monday “we’ve been in constant contact with the Emiratis, the Saudis and others who are affected in the region,” and added “we’ve also been engaged in direct conversations with the Houthis themselves.”

Officially, the U.S. maintains its strong military ties with Saudi Arabia. CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Monday in Jeddah, according to Saudi state media. The two discussed “regional security cooperation,” according to CENTCOM public affairs.

But the appetite for more warfare seems limited throughout Washington. “Oil is already over $100 a barrel, and there’s no end in sight to these price fluctuations until the Trump Administration negotiates an end to this war,” said Senate Foreign Relations ranking member Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.).

Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.), a member of SFRC, said, “It is vital that the United States and our regional allies work together to maintain an open flow of trade through Middle East shipping lanes.” He didn’t answer whether the U.S. should get involved in strikes against the Houthis.

The tepid response in Washington may also stem from whiplash after the Houthis made dramatic advances in a matter of hours, evading both Saudi-backed Yemeni forces and the Saudi and U.S. militaries. One exasperated person in the region called it “a Saudi-American f**k up of epic proportions,” CNN‘s Nic Robertson and Lauren Kent reported.

The White House and Saudi Arabia’s embassy didn’t immediately confirm an Axios report that MBS asked the U.S. for help in striking the Houthis. Yemen’s embassy also didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

The Arab diplomat said that Yemen has asked the U.S. to restart its support of Yemen’s armed forces and humanitarian programs. The diplomat said Saudi Arabia was also trying to draw the White House’s attention.

“The idea of accepting the Houthis controlling strategic locations in Yemen is establishing a permanent national security crisis for Saudi Arabia,” the diplomat said.

A meeting of Gulf states and Iran, scheduled for Monday in Oman, was postponed due to what Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei described as a demand from Saudi Arabia.

Both Saudi Arabia and the government of Yemen are striking the Houthis, but “I don’t see those as decisive moves,” said Allison Minor, who served as the deputy special envoy for Yemen in the Biden administration and director for Arabian Peninsula affairs at the National Security Council under the first Trump administration. “It feels like we’re gearing up for a protracted conflict,” she added.

Michael Ratney, who served as U.S. ambassador to Riyadh under President Joe Biden, argued Gulf states would aim to make their own arrangements to cool the chaos.

“There will be a lot of diplomacy on this topic but we, the U.S., will not be the center of it,” he said.

Ratney noted Saudi Arabia might be cautious about patching up its pipeline while active battle continues, which could keep fuel costly.

“The markets are starting to price in all the political risk that’s going to be involved,” he said.

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Fonte: POLITICOPolitics » POLITICO