New York Republicans wield public safety fears in a tough midterm climate

Por Nick Reisman — POLITICO – TOP Stories

ALBANY, New York — Bruce Blakeman, the Republican nominee for governor, rode the subway Monday to a Midtown Manhattan station where a man was shot dead and called Gov. Kathy Hochul “pro-criminal.” It was the kind of move then-Rep. Lee Zeldin made again and again in the final weeks of 2022, when he came within 6.4 points of beating the Democrat.

Empire State Republicans are betting that a public safety focus will help them buck a tough political climate across the country. It’s a strategy that helped Republicans in tough races in 2022, leveraging an issue that resonates in crucial bellwether regions like the New York City suburbs.

Bashing the state’s cashless bail law. Backing President Donald Trump’s aggressive deportation policies. And viscerally warning Jewish New Yorkers they face danger with Mayor Zohran Mamdani in City Hall. Blakeman is adapting a familiar Zeldin script.

Hochul has spent the years since 2022 trying to blunt those tactics, boosting the State Police’s budget and narrowing the scope of the cashless bail law. With violent crime down and affordability topping voters’ priorities, Blakeman is testing how much power the old message still holds.

The Republican Nassau County executive and gubernatorial candidate has wrapped himself in law enforcement. On the trail, he frequently touts his suburban county as the safest in America — a distinction also bestowed under his Democratic predecessor. He rallied with Trump this summer at an event that prominently placed uniformed officers behind the stage. His running mate, Todd Hood, is the sheriff of rural Madison County. And as he travels the state, Blakeman has a retinue of Nassau County police officers in his security detail standing near him at all times.

“The fear of crime is still great,” former Democratic Gov. David Paterson said. “That’ll take a while to diminish. I’m not blaming anyone for feeling that way.”

Hochul’s campaign pointed to a Siena Research Institute survey that found more voters trust the governor to keep them safe than Blakeman. Her approach has also won support from Democratic allies like New York City Council Speaker Julie Menin, Rep. Jerry Nadler and Assemblymember Bobby Carroll.

“Governor Hochul has invested $4 billion in policing and public safety, from cops, cameras, and barriers on our subways to cracking down on hate crimes and ghost guns,” Hochul campaign spokesperson Ryan Radulovacki said. “Bruce Blakeman is going to lose because public safety just might be his single worst issue: he let violent crime hit ten-year highs on his watch, propped up an armed MAGA militia with GOP donors and his own family, and lets Trump’s rogue, untrained ICE agents put New Yorkers’ safety at risk.”

Blakeman’s campaign did not return messages seeking comment.

Public safety marks New York as a potential outlier ahead of what strategists in both parties believe is shaping up to be a Democratic wave year. Running on crime enables blue state Republicans to frame their races around discontent with Democratic leadership at a moment in which Trump has become broadly unpopular — potentially galvanizing independent voters who are deeply dissatisfied with anyone in power.

While affordability remains the top issue for voters, the emotional connection many New Yorkers have with public safety concerns continues to hold a powerful pull. Even as violence has ebbed following a pandemic-era spike, crime can still resonate with New York voters, especially those who live within proximity to the nation’s largest city, where brutally unpredictable events can erupt and become tabloid or TV news fodder. The daylight subway platform shooting of a security guard on his way home from work is only the latest example.  

The stakes are high for both candidates in this Democratic-dominated state.

Hochul and Blakeman are trying to mount robust campaigns to bolster candidates competing for swing House seats in purplish areas that may determine control of the closely divided chamber and the fate of Trump’s last two years in office.

Polls have shown the incumbent Democrat leading the Republican challenger and that affordability — not public safety — is the top priority for New York voters. An Emerson College poll this month found New York voters ranked crime ahead of health care, education and immigration when asked which issues they consider most important. Affordability, though, topped the list.

Public safety was a glaring Achillles’ heal for Hochul in her 2022 bid for a full term, when Republicans ran almost exclusively on an anti-crime platform. Democratic-approved criminal justice law changes meant to tilt the system more favorably to defendants — like limiting cash bail — and the closure of state prisons have handed Republicans opportunities to portray their opponents as callous to voters’ anxiety over public safety.

“The metro area still hasn’t gotten fully over its post-pandemic hangover where fear of crime drove not only politics, but economic decisions down to where you’re going to live and send your kids to schools,” said Larry Levy, a suburban politics expert at Long Island’s Hofstra University. “Where most of the country has moved on with that level of fear, New York still has a lot of people with a heightened sensitivity to crime. That gives Blakeman an opening to exploit it.”

A staunch anti-crime platform is embedded in New York’s political DNA. As governor, Nelson Rockefeller campaigned on harsh penalties for drug dealers. In a seminal mayoral campaign, Rudy Giuliani successfully unseated Democrat David Dinkins by pledging an aggressive push against criminals and embracing quality-of-life concerns like combating so-called squeegee men. George Pataki, the last New York Republican elected governor, defeated liberal lion Mario Cuomo by promising to restore the state’s death penalty.

And while it is not the top issue for voters in New York this year, Republicans believe it will nevertheless motivate voters across the state — even in areas well outside of the New York City region where gang violence and car thefts have been a concern.

“These are quality-of-life-ruining crimes because it’s making people feel unsafe in their homes,” Erie County Republican Chair Michael Kracker said.

Some GOP candidates are trying to braid the public safety issue with affordability. GOP state attorney general candidate Saritha Komatireddy, who’s running against Democratic incumbent Letitia James, argues New Yorkers pay a “crime tax” every time someone breaks the law.

“Every New Yorker is paying a crime tax, whether they know it or not,” Komatireddy said in an interview. “Every New Yorker is a victim of crime, and the rule-following New Yorkers are paying. The New Yorkers who follow the rules are paying for the ones who don’t.”

New York’s law that limits when cash bail is required in many criminal cases remains a ripe target for Republicans and Blakeman. He has sharply criticized Hochul’s successful push for measures meant to put guardrails on Trump’s immigration enforcement effort, including a law that prevents agencies like Immigration and Customs Enforcement from working with local police. And in a recent meeting with Hasidic leaders, Blakeman questioned whether Mamdani, New York City’s first Muslim mayor, would respond to riots, rapes and religious desecrations in Jewish neighborhoods, The New York Times reported.

His ads and campaign material have highlighted alleged gang violence in New York City’s public housing. A video Blakeman posted this month touted his county executive administration hiring hundreds of new cops.

The anti-crime rhetoric, though, underscores the difficult political reality Republicans face this year. Trump is broadly unpopular across the country. His tariffs and war in Iran have driven up costs, while his expansive efforts to crack down on illegal immigration have become deeply unpopular with voters.

Hochul has also adjusted to New Yorkers’ public safety worries. The Democratic governor has boosted the State Police’s budget, narrowed the scope of the cashless bail law and trumpeted efforts to reduce shootings.

She successfully lobbied Mamdani to retain NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch, a popular figure with the Big Apple’s business elite, but a lightning rod for the left, especially after an ICE agent shot a man in Manhattan.

And Hochul also aggressively pushed the Trump administration to release millions of dollars in federal funds that were, in part, meant to aid New York’s counterterrorism efforts — a controversy that briefly enabled Democrats to claim Republicans were “defunding” the police.

The backlash to Trump’s violent deportation campaign in Minnesota earlier this year spurred Hochul to secure a package of measures limiting how federal immigration agents operate in New York and framed the effort by arguing local police should not have their hands tied by dealing with civil immigration matters. Immigration enforcement remains one of the starkest differences between Hochul and Blakeman, who has warned the measures are “sanctuary” policies that put New Yorkers at risk.

Further blunting Blakeman’s argument is a steady drop in violent crime since Zeldin came within single digits of defeating Hochul. The governor has touted the decrease in shootings and other violent criminal acts, but asserts she’s not declaring victory.

“There are other things in the national and statewide conversation that aren’t about crime,” said former Nassau County Executive Laura Curran, a Democrat who Blakeman unseated in 2021. “It’s Trump shenanigans, it’s affordability. This usual Republican boogeyman with crime isn’t working.”

But the Midtown subway shooting over the weekend gave Blakeman a fresh opening to challenge Hochul’s claims of safer streets.

“It just illustrates seven murders in our subways,” Blakeman said in a response to the shooting. “It’s up almost 100 percent under Zohran Mamdani and Kathy Hochul. Stop telling New Yorkers that it’s safe. You’ve made it less safe. Nobody feels safer. I will make you safe.”

Hochul pointed to a sharp drop in subway crimes last year. She also steered state aid to help boost the NYPD’s presence on trains.

“I ask people to look at the raw numbers and know that we are still safer than we have been,” she said. “Now, one crime is one too many, full stop. I’m continuing our efforts to fund police officers on the subways.”

Fonte: POLITICO – TOP Stories