Unpacking Indonesia With Marcus Tantau
Por Luke Hunt — The Diplomat
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The country is currently beset by wildfires, political ructions, and intensifying economic troubles.
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto (center) salutes during a parade marking Bhayangkara Day, the anniversary of the founding of the Indonesian National Police, in Bogor, West Java, Indonesia, July 1, 2026.
Marcus Tantau is a senior associate at Templeton Research with a focus on Indonesia, which is beset by El Nino-fueled wildfires, political ructions amid a cabinet reshuffle, and confusing signals over the economy.
This month’s reshuffle was the biggest since President Prabowo Subianto took power two years ago and Tantau says the Indonesian leader is clearly focused on shoring-up support ahead the next election, which is not due until 2029.
The reshuffle also sidelined supporters of former president Joko Widodo, who helped Prabowo win the vote in 2024. It came amid intense speculation regarding the state of the country’s finances and its efforts to combat the wildfires, which politicians are attempting to justify.
But arguments that food security and rice production justify the burning-off and clearing of land remain out of step with the region, where climate change and this year’s El Nino weather phenomena are taking a heavy toll.
“The mood towards Prabowo isn’t that great,” Tantau said. “It’s all these issues, around job security. The rupiah has declined significantly since Prabowo came to power. It’s all of these issues that are linked to one another.
“But I think Prabowo is mostly focused on improving or consolidating his political hold on Indonesia. And we saw that recently with the cabinet shuffle where he was, for all intents and purposes, sidelining Joko appointees.”
Tantau also publishes the Substack newsletter “Five Things You Should Know About Indonesia.”
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Marcus Tantau is a senior associate at Templeton Research with a focus on Indonesia, which is beset by El Nino-fueled wildfires, political ructions amid a cabinet reshuffle, and confusing signals over the economy.
This month’s reshuffle was the biggest since President Prabowo Subianto took power two years ago and Tantau says the Indonesian leader is clearly focused on shoring-up support ahead the next election, which is not due until 2029.
The reshuffle also sidelined supporters of former president Joko Widodo, who helped Prabowo win the vote in 2024. It came amid intense speculation regarding the state of the country’s finances and its efforts to combat the wildfires, which politicians are attempting to justify.
But arguments that food security and rice production justify the burning-off and clearing of land remain out of step with the region, where climate change and this year’s El Nino weather phenomena are taking a heavy toll.
“The mood towards Prabowo isn’t that great,” Tantau said. “It’s all these issues, around job security. The rupiah has declined significantly since Prabowo came to power. It’s all of these issues that are linked to one another.
“But I think Prabowo is mostly focused on improving or consolidating his political hold on Indonesia. And we saw that recently with the cabinet shuffle where he was, for all intents and purposes, sidelining Joko appointees.”
Tantau also publishes the Substack newsletter “Five Things You Should Know About Indonesia.”
Luke Hunt is a Southeast Asia correspondent for The Diplomat. He has spent three decades working in the region and produces the Beyond the Mekong podcast. He can be followed on Patreon and X – formerly Twitter.
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Fonte: The Diplomat
