Carney warns Alberta not to stumble into ‘Brexit’

Por Mickey Djuric — POLITICO – TOP Stories

EDMONTON, Alberta — Voters in Alberta head to the polls on Monday in a vote that will ask whether the province should take the next step toward a binding vote on separation from Canada.

A “yes” vote would not make Alberta independent, but it could put the province on a path toward separation and test Prime Minister Mark Carney’s ability to keep the country together.

Polls show most Albertans want to stay in Canada, but pro-unity organizers fear people may not bother to vote if they think a “stay” side victory is guaranteed.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who called Monday’s referendum but supports remaining in Canada, said separatist support for an independent Alberta, which stood at 23% in one poll, is “still too high for my liking.”

“Vote like Canada’s future depends on it — because it does,” Prime Minister Mark Carney told a rally of around 5,000 people in Edmonton on Friday.

Carney’s presence at three rallies just days before the vote was intended to mobilize Albertans to get out to the polls.

“We can all think that the worst isn’t going to happen. We could put signs on our lawn and write poetry about Canadian unity. But honestly, unless people show up at the polls on Oct. 19, we could lose this referendum question,” Eleanor Olszewski, a federal Liberal Cabinet minister from Alberta, told POLITICO over the summer.

Despite the efforts of the get-out-the-vote campaign, Smith’s government appeared anxious on the weekend.

An Alberta United Conservative Party member, granted anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the private reception publicly, said the party asked volunteers to drive through south Calgary on Sunday to count pro-Canada and pro-Alberta lawn signs.

“Didn’t know lawn signs could vote,” the member quipped to POLITICO.

How we got here

Alberta, a deeply conservative province, has had long-standing grievances with Ottawa over energy policies brought in by Liberal prime ministers.

The modern separatist movement took shape in the 1980s after former Liberal Prime Minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau introduced the National Energy Program, which raised taxes on oil companies and oil exports while shifting more of the industry’s profits to Ottawa. Although the NEP was dismantled five years later, Albertans have not forgotten.

When Trudeau’s son, Justin, became prime minister in 2015, his government introduced environmental policies that made it more difficult and expensive to build pipelines, expand production and attract investment.

Carney and Smith have worked together to repeal or reform much of Trudeau’s progressive agenda. They’ve framed Ottawa-Alberta backing of a new West Coast pipeline as proof Canada works.

Carney, who was raised in Edmonton, has visited the province more than a dozen times since becoming prime minister in 2025, announcing billions for energy projects, defense, affordable housing and high-speed rail.

“The stakes are high. This referendum comes at the worst possible time. The world is becoming more dangerous and divided,” Carney said at the rallies.

“Open your eyes. There are some outside our borders who are working to break us, so they can own us. Never.”

His line drew the largest applause in Edmonton and Calgary. Carney was referring to the United States without explicitly naming it or President Donald Trump, who has said he wants to make Canada a “51st state.”

Worst-case scenario

Matthew Rowley, founder of Renew Alberta, a group that advocates for independence, believes separatists could account for up to 45% of votes cast — a nightmare scenario for the pro-unity side.

Rowley and other independence leaders said polls underestimate support for separation. “The hardest core of our independence movement are very distrustful of institutions, so a pollster phones and they don’t even answer,” Rowley said.

POLITICO spoke with voters throughout Alberta, including rural business owners, who said they planned to back a binding referendum just to “send a message to Ottawa.”

Smith acknowledged Albertans are “angry at how we were treated for the last 10 years” under Trudeau’s leadership.

She advised the “send a message” crowd that there are better ways to get Ottawa’s attention.

Elections Alberta has said results will be announced within 48 hours of polls closing.

And Smith is eager for Albertans to move on. In private conversations and events, she has warned the conservative movement against splitting over a debate about separatism, a cause supported by much of her UCP base.

Carney has cautioned Albertans not to stumble into a “Brexit” scenario.

“What we need is a decisive result on Monday to settle this question,” Carney told the thousands who turned out to his rallies.

No matter how it shakes out, the grassroots separatist movement is unlikely to move on. Resignation was in the air at one town hall last week, but separatist organizers told POLITICO they’re just getting started.

“My plan on Tuesday is going to be exactly the same,” organizer Cory Morgan said. “Do whatever I have to do to make Alberta a fully independent country.”

Fonte: POLITICO – TOP Stories